Dano's thoughts on the presidential race

My friend Dano has been sending me regular observations about the progress
of the presidential race. I think it is good stuff and I asked him for
permission to pass it on. Here it is:

Ok, I have had a few more days of the Cain scandal to absorb, and we just had another R debate; and last night we had all those ballot referenda in Ohio, Mississippi, Maine, etc.; so here are my thoughts: Perry had a big gaffe tonight and is dead because he said he was going to close 3 cabinet level agencies, and he could only remember two of them. The way he did it made it stick out like a sore thumb. It was painful to watch, even for someone who wishes him ill--such as myself. I honestly really felt sorry for the dumb-ass. It is being mentioned by commentators as one of the worst debate moments of alltime. He actually had a good debate otherwise, and later he did remember the third agency (it was Energy). Nonetheless, he is toast. He may have been anyway, but he is now. It will be an internet laughing stock type of moment.Romney did his usual competent performance, and so I assume nothing has changed for him. About 25% of the R party are for him and about 75% are pretty strongly against him.Cain avoided any further damage from his scandal and otherwise had a good night. Nonetheless, I still think he is a dead man walking. It is obvious that the scandal has enormous potential for story after story after story and detail after detail, and "drip, drip, drip. "Eventually, it will occur to the R voters that that is an unacceptable situation for a nominee, even aside from his other shortcomings, which are major. I noticed tonight that the other candidates no longer feel the need to attack him, as they did vigorously a month ago. They know it, too. The problem for them is that Cain may hang on to 20% or thereabouts ofthe vote nationally, and in Iowa--the first to vote--too long for them to gather up the residue of his eventual collapse. In other words, he may not fall fast enough to help any of the others. NYT columnist Charles Blow (a black liberal) gave a reason for this: the conservatives like what he says about race; Cain says that most blacks have been "brainwashed" to stay on the "Democratic plantation." He says that people who do not have jobs have only themselves to blame. By being for him and knowing that he says such things, he exonerates alot of typical arch-conservatives of a lifetime of racism. So, they love him and will not abandon him easily. This creates the possibility that he may stay as the number two to Romney long enough that no one else can ever reach that spot in time to stop Romney.The next in line for the anti-Romney, at this point, is clearly Gingrich. He has had all good debate performances. He does not attack the other R's, and so no one ever sees the mean side of him except when he attacks Obama, which they like, of course. His is gradually coming up in all polls. I think there is a chance that--especially if the Cain collapse speeds up--he may end up the main opponent to Romney. He'd probably still lose; people will remember his three marriages and the nasty circumstances of his two divorces (Romney made a point tonight, with Newt standing next to him, that he had been married to only one woman--an accomplishment for a Morman, I suppose--for more than 40 years). So, it still looks like Romney to me. But I would like to see it devolve to a Romney-Gingrich race just for the fun of it. Cain is never going to get that nomination, and he now is just standing in theway of others who might have a chance to knock off Romney. As for Obama, things look better for him. The ballot initiatives in Ohio, Maine, and, incredibly, Mississippi, look good for him, and there is mounting evidence that the tea-soaked R's have over-played their hand since the 2010 election. Particularly in several swing states--Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida, as major examples--the 2010 elections created R governors and legislatures that are now patently unpopular in those states, and this phenomenon will help Obama to win those states. The Occupy Movement and other studies and articles have educated the electorate--particularly the independents--on the fact that the gap between rich and the middle class in this countryhas risen very dramatically since the Reagan election in 1980. An absolute majority of the country polls that R policies are designed to favor the rich. Also, the majority of both the independent and moderate voters have now been convinced that the R's are intentionally sabotaging the economy to help their election chances against Obama. This creates an atmosphere in which Obama can win. It creates a situation where he can make the opponents the main issue instead of himself--which he needs to do because he has been no great success. But as things stand now, he is the favorite against any R nominee. I don't know if he even deserves to be the beneficiary of these sentiments, given his choice of Geitner as Treasury Sec. and his relatively soft on Wall Street administration, but he is the one who is in position to benefit from it, if he plays his cards right. One danger is that a lot of the people on the left will conclude that he is not part of the solution, but rather part of the problem, and will stay home. We will see.